New blog, new way of going about things.

I put up a new blog. This new blog will be a very strictly -business like blog. I don't want to fuck around with poker anymore, and i'm not gunna put up any shitty posts about how poker sucks or anything like that in this new blog. It's going to be strictly stats of w.e i put up, and business-plan type blog. its gunna have my thoughts on situations i need to improve on and shit like that. Buttt this blog will still exist for me to fuck around on and put up totals and stuff like that. Yeah, word.

Poker Talk; about exploiting regs I guess

I watched a 2 part series from a 1-2, 2-4 reg on deuces cracked today. The valuable content of the videos was, "taking non-standard lines to extract, and thinly overbetting for value with a polarised range." I really liked these two videos as the instructor went into depth about extracting value against regulars who you know, or assume will expect you to do something in a standard spot. (though i think the instructor was swedish and his accent made the word "here," sound like "Heyah." very annoying)

For instance, You raise KK in MP or earlier and the button/CO just calls (he 3bets QQ+ And AK), everyone else folds. Lets say button is a good reg who expects you to ch/fold w air hands a lot on boards like 334ss or 678 type boards. And will bet assuming to take down the pot a good majority of the time.

The flop comes 344 with a heart fd, you hold the KK with a heart. You check the flop and he bets.

Now, the button will think (we have reads on him, or assume he expects this), you would probably just bet a FD+overcards, your overpairs, and any type of straight draw you could have. So he bets, and you go for a C/R.

If villain thinks you would bet all your made hands, and big draws (maybe you could c/r with a big draw), then i think he's not likely to believe you have a strong holding and this will leave room for him to make a mistake.

If he has a hand like the backdoor NFD, or AQ/AK, or 56, 78 1 heart, or even made hands like 55+ he might feel his hand is best and shove or make a small raise. He might say ehh its a cooler if he shows me the nuts. and justify his play. If he has like 55+ he might just call, evaluate -call/fold turn/river.

Now the whole point of making this play is because:
1. It's unlikely you will get 2 or more streets of value against a thinking reg with your holding, on this board, (and still be good).
2. Villain can think that your line is Full of shit and make a play back.
3. It forces the reg to not put you in a shitty spot out of position. (if you took a bet bet bet line, he could bluff raise turns/rivers in position and force you to bluff catch un-improved out of position-which is shitty.)
4. Villain might not steal away the pot as much when you are checking the flop to check fold next time (allowing you to improve on turns/rivers.)
5. Villain thinks you will bet/play more aggressively out of position with all your strong hands like 1010+ or big draws.


That said, reasons to NOT make this play are:
1. Villain will call down 3 streets with a lower underpair
2. Villain is NOT capable of raising turns or rivers with semi bluffs- draws/missed draws (causing you to bluff catch or ship it uncomfortbaly against his range.) I.E.Villain plays his draws passively.
3. Villain will check back this board with a high frequency and try to get to show down with a small overpair -in which case betting is better.
4. Villain is a passive fish, or a fish uncapable of making a play here.

Just some thoughts im throwing out there. There was alot of situations where the instructor was against a reg, which the reg would assume Hero to bet or check with a high frequency. Also, the instructor was in situations where the reg would always be stabbing at a pot with a high frequency in which the reg would assume to take down the pot a ton.

So when your in a situation with a big hand where if you check villain will bet a high frequency, it's great to check/raise in order to get that extra bet from villain and induce. (unless villain will call call call anyways, or will be afraid of your c/r -which seems unlikely against good regs).

I feel like im repeating what I'm saying so imma stop and post it.

Let me know what ya think, PEACE.

Big tourney day

Played a buncha tourneys today. pretty good day wen to my first final table in a scheduled tournament >300peeps. and won a 180 man. Also, switched sites to GR88 Poker to grind out a much need 720$ bonus+35% rakeback +other promotions. My cash game play has sucked on stars, idk if its running abs horrible, or just im not a winner. I'll figure it out, I'm grinding 25nl 100bb poker on gr88 until i get some more $$$ on there, or my game gets better.

Totals since last post:

Cash hands played: 8974
Profit: -331.48$

Tournaments played:60
Profit: +434.38$

Rakeback: +7.74$

Total profit since last post: +110.64$

Feels so incredibly good to be up since my last post, it really hit home when i hit that last downswing. After a month of just horrible run bad/break even play at the end (and a -400$ on the month), I was hoping for a good month in nov. This did not come true as there was a blaring hole in my bank roll.

Anyways with rakeback alone thats about 5+$ an hour depending on how many tables and will help lower the swingy-ness. (+bonuses i cant fail! right?)

Thats it enjoy folks!

SN 200k for 2011: The Numbers, the Moe-nays, and the Grind

I've thought about what to do in 2011, 200k Supernova is calling my name. First of all to get my peace of mind together, I'd like to state this:

If I do not play poker in 2011, and work part-time during school/full time during summer, I would only be making about 5-7k a year. My average salary for a summer at Dunks (where i would most-likely work at) would be about 3500$ and part time throughout college I figure around 1500-3k$ would be average. (after taxes)

So I can make around 5-7k$ a year if I quit poker and went back to my old job.

Anyways back to my SN chase.

Here's the numbers:

200,000 VPP's
365 days= 548 VPP/day

At 50nl Short tables- getting .24 vpp/hand (that's what I have at over 70k hand sample)

= 2283 hands/day

At 50nl Short tables- at .38 vpp/hand (that's a rough estimate and I think steve mentioned it was some where around there)

=1442 hands/day

Realistically I can only comfortably play 8-10 tables so far, I'm going to settle with these numbers for now.

8 tabling at 90 hands/hour: 720 hands/hour
50nl: 3.2 hours/day

10 tabling -90h/hr : 900 hands/hour
50nl: 2.53 hours/day

Now, since I am struggling to move up, have not much experience at 100nl, and am a little short on my bankroll for 100nl, I don't think I will be playing as many tables as 50nl. So here's the numbers for my estimate:

5 tabling at 90h/hr: 450 h/hr
100nl= 3.2 hours

7 tabling: 630 h/hr
100nl= 2.3 hours.

The Moe-nay's:

200k SN has a lot of worthy bonuses for grinders at my stage in my poker career.

Firstly, I've set a goal to reach 100k SN by the 6 month mid point of the goal. If I can achieve this then I can receive the full benefits of 200k SN.

I'f I start in January at Platinum star (Grind it out in December), and achieve 100k VPP's after 6 months, I will have 250k FPP's.

Once at Supernova and shooting for 200k VPP's, I'll be getting 3.5 FPP's per VPP.
If I make the last 100k VPP's in the last 6months I will have a total of 600k FPP's.

(the faster I get supernova the more FPP's I will get)

Bonuses:

1000$ stellar rewards (need 90k VPP's to get all of it)
4000$ 250,000 FPP reward
4000$ 250,000 FPP reward
1000$ 50,000 FPP 100k VPP milestone
3400$ 50,000 FPP 200k VPP milestone
____________
Total: $13,400 profit from bonuses at 200k SN.

Even if I play break-even at any of the stakes I play and achieve this, it's almost twice the amount I would make at my typical job.

The numbers for grinding seem very small, however given I've known myself to procrastinate, it's going to be tough.

This is the most realistic reach goal I can set for myself for 2011 and if I do conquer it, I'll set myself up for a great run at SNE in 2012 (the end of ze world.)

My absolute minimum for 2011 is to achieve Supernova 100k. If I don't achieve this, I probably quit poker or am in the ground dead..haha

The cool thing about this whole challenge is the fact that even if I only hit 100k VPP's, I'll still be making my average salary of around 5k a year. Plus, I'll have a much higher FPP/VPP ratio and much better rakeback.

In order to start this challenge and get rolling, I'm going to need a bigger bankroll. In order to play 100nl consistently I want to have at least 3k in my cashier. Until then its going to be about 20% 100nl 80% 50nl/ w.e I decide to play. Once I get a 3k bankroll I do not mind switching roles (no pun intended ;) and making it 80% 100nl / 20% w.e I think this is a really good idea for my peace of mind and situation.

The only hard part about this challenge (besides putting in the grind) will be the distances between each bonus. I'm going to need money and that's a fact. So I'm planning on taking out money each month. I think taking out money once or twice a month is the best way to keep my Bank roll healthy, and still have cash for things. If I have a big $$ month I will try to not take out more than I usually need to suffice for a downswing.

As far as the bonuses go, I'm trying to get my BR to at least 10k by the end of the year any excess funds with that I don't mind taking out and investing/buying big things that I need with. Such as a car =)

Lastly, I would like to rant on about Card runners. I'm going to need a card runners membership. I don't know how I'm going to get it, but I need it. I feel like in order for me to comfortably play 100nl I'm going to need 2-3k in my cashier at all times on stars. This is conflicting because the only realistic way of getting CR is shifting to full tilt and grinding it out. I might ask for a stake, or I might just shift 1k to full tilt and get CR before the new year. This is conflicting however, because I need to achieve Platinum star during December in order to gain full benefits of my FPP's in 2011. Idk just some thoughts. A stake isn't really an option TBH, because it's going to cost me money and the whole point of getting CR is it's free...

Well that's it, really long post, but i feel really good about laying it all out there. Enjoy.

Totally poker weekend

I'm not happy with how I played last night, I didn't make some really super-easy folds and it cost me 100bb's more than once. But, I feel good today and will be ready to grind out a long session after I eat.

I'm going to break my grind up into shorter sessions. Probably play 1k hands at first, 4-8 tabling, then evaluate my state of mind. If I feel I'm getting lazy/tired, I'll take a break. Then start up again for a quick 500 hand session and evaluate. Repeat.

If after those 1k hands I'm feeling great, I'm going to add another table or two and evaluate every 500 hands.

Totals since last post:

Hands: 5513

Profit: +90.42$

Tourneys/Sngs: 79

Profit:-52.68$

Bonuses: +300$ 25kFPP bonus. +11$ 280 fpp sat

Total profit since last post: +348.74$

I chose to purchase the 300$ bonus for a number of reasons. Basically the value of having a mental security of my bankroll was worth the loss of .001$ per fpp.

Anyways, in tournaments, I played about 12 or so games HU at the 10$ level. This probably skewed my tourney results as I went semi deep in a 5$ rebuy. But, I was playing an enormous fish. He played 90% of hands from both positions and always limped. He raised his top like 5% of hands.

So easily exploitable its not even funny. He also never folded to cbets (around 20-30%). To exploit him I just cbet really really dry boards, but the majority of my Cbets where for value. I have to think though, is it profitable to raise 40% of hands against guys like these on the button IP? I think I would rather limp like the bottom half of my range just trying to hit, and raise the top half of my range.

Well to cut it short, he got 8 buy-ins off of me in 8 games... 7 of which were coolers, like not "i hit the top of his range" but "damn my AA got cracked all-in preflop." LOL and 1 buyin was a so-so decision. I'd like to learn if what I stated above is the best strategy, about limping on the button against these guys. Thanks.

Pce.

Sunday and 50nl graph for NOV.

Heres my graph of 50nl so far this month so you can see how I've started focusing and playing better/run good. not trying to brag or nothing, it just will motivate me k thanks.

So far since last post haven't played much, but I've been playing a bunch of tourneys this sunday and not doing so well

Tournaments played: 23 (2 still going on)
Profit: -43.67$ (still have 2 left)

I played about 12 of those hyper turbo FPP buyins and lost/got my money back in all but 1 (those things are crazy I've come to realize)

Cash:

Hands: 1051

Profit: +34.30$ ( about 120 under EV lol)

Heres the graph!

Man i gotta start posting more of these FML posts...

I guess my doomswitch switched off since my last post... I'm starting to play better, run better, and got an 80 on an exam that decided my fate in my college career... BOSS.

I didn't post my results when I blew some money at the 25nl deep tables so it kind of skews my results for recently.

Totals since last total's post:

Hands played: 7408

Total Profit: +21.54$

Tournaments played: 53

Profit: +200.94$

Total profit since last: +222.48$

I've really lowered the tables while playing recently in order to get outta this rut and still be "sane." It really helped. After the chip dumping session at 25nl deep, I ended up playing some of my best play at the 50nl short tables. I ran close to EV and my redline is definitely breakeven/slightly positive. Lowering the tables has helped my game tremendously. I think I need a larger sample while playing 4-7 tables in order to: 1. figure out the right play in situations I have no clue of what to do, 2. Get a higher BB/100 to lower this variance, 3. Manage my tilt issues.

Not only that, but by lowering the tables to say 4-6, I'm able to put up 8-12 3$ 18/27man SNGS in one tile. This tremendously helps my $/HR as the 3's are my bread and butter of the MTT world (besides the 180's). ALSO, by adding those in, I'm forcing myself to put in the hours at the cash games. This sometimes is a bad thing, but for my situation right now it is perfect.

Lastly, letting poker affect my life/state of mind is not how I should live. If I let it affect my life/grades/whatever then it's just not for me. And since I want poker to be a supplementary or even primary income, I have to work on not allowing it affect me. It kinda sucks not having CR right now, because i'd like to watch those jared tindler vids about "mentality" and my A-game. Meh, maybe I'll head to SW and watch some vids w colt (no homo.)

Lol just realized my redline over the last 10k hands is positive by a substantial amount, this usually happens when I go into tilt and try to take down every pot LOL. At 50nl it's nice and breakeven recently so w.e.

And my very last statement; the cash games are so SOFT on the weekends, it's ridiculous. I could probably pull 5BB/100 easily for a weekend grind.

I'm stuck. I'm in a life-rut. (it's a rant so STFU)

I'm only putting this up because I'm too stressed out to write in a journal. I've been "stuck," meaning not being able to move forward/ progress in anything, for over a month now. If anything I've moved or am moving backwards in I guess i'll call it "progress." I've had bronchitis for over a month and my medicine for it is almost up and no changes/minimal. My results with school are: I had a test in Stats, in which 30% of my grade is weighted to, since I opted out of the HW online. The test didnt go so well, on average i probably received a D-C range. In my botany class, because I have refused to go to class at 9AM every morning and just read the lectures online, I've fallen 6 classes behind. Not only that but I feel I'm missing a ton of content in the actual class. In my consumer economics class I've chosen to give up 5% of my grade because I don't want to write 6 summaries on bullshit current events each week. I got a 76 on the only test we had so far which seemed incredibly easy, and every lecture is the most boring/waste of my life i have ever experienced. I feel i know everything in this class yet Have to go because attendance is mandatory. In my Price theory class, I'm doing OK, recently I've fallen behind and have missed a couple classes but I've gotten a B on the test and have gone to most of the classes. Overall school wise, it just seems like my definition of waste of time. I don't want to be here but am forced to because of financial aid, parents, GF and to get a degree. I personally would like to move back home and focus on other more important things in my life, but I can't. This feeling of trap-ness is DE-motivating me to do anything and making me slightly depressed/in a wrong state of mind. Money wise, I'm not doing that bad, if I need money I have my bank roll there to suffice, and I don't really have bills besides phone. Poker wise: It's a shit show. I'm stuck and don't know where to go. I moved down to the short tables at 25nl, yet I feel like I'll grind for hours for like 5$ an hour. Which is just short of making me insane. I feel like I can't fucking win at anything poker wise except for tournaments. Yet I don;t have time for tournaments with my classes/GF time. That's another thing. If I'm not sleeping or eating or going to class it's assumed that I should hang out with my GF. That cuts SO MUCH time/effort away from school/poker. I can't stand it, especially on the weekends where I want to put in the most hours in for poker. Don't get me wrong my GF is amazing and I'd never want to break it off for something like this, but I feel like she'd be pissed off if I didn't hang out with her because I'm playing/doing something poker related. As a result I've been "running through the cracks" putting in sessions when she's not around. She's going home this weekend which will give me a lot of time for poker but I don't want to keep doing it like this. Another thing is my Car and Xbox broke down (as i've already said). This just adds so much stress. I can't just "go for a drive" when I'm stressed out, or I can't just play halo for entertainment when I want to. And it's just like more things that I have to get/pay for. My last rant is my health. Because I've been sick for so long, I haven't been in the Gym for about a month. This is a HUGE no-no for me. The gym allows me to steam off so much stress and gives me a sense of control. Everything I've worked on in the summer is pretty much for-not now as I've gained weight/lost muscle. Also, I feel like an ass clown when I'm in between classes and have a lot of free time. I tend to just sit around and do nothing/read 2+2 bull shit for hours. See I'd like to actually do something but my mind traces off into "lala land" and I end up playing my roomates Xbox or surfing the web and legit wasting my life. I talked to my doctor and he seriously advised me to look into ADD medicine. I have an appointment scheduled on the 10th which hopefully I can get this figured out. I don't mind taking Med's for something like this, It's something I have always struggled with and as long as I am able to maintain a healthy life style I don't care. I Can't stand all this shit and need some sleep. Pce.

Deep tables..

So far I've been playing a lot of the deep tables at 25nl. They are wicked soft, and the so called "regs" like to c/r bluff the river all in when I have the nuts. However, I've lots a BUNCH of all ins when i was about 2-4 buy ins deep which is insane. Here's an example of what I mean.

I raise PF in MP w/ AA to 4xbb. SB 3bets to like 16bb, and I 4bet to 48bb's and he calls. We were about 250bb deep or so.

This player was sort of nitty, and I had a 3b of like 5% over 100 hands or so. I felt he was only 3betting premiums and maybe some high broadway hands. I put his PF range that would call a 4bet as 1010-KK AK, AKs.

The flop comes KsK5s. 100bb pot

I bet 40bb on the flop, setting up a turn shove. 10$ into 25$. He calls.

Turn is a Jh We both have 1 Pot sized bet left effective.

I shove and he has AKs.

Did I play the hand wrong? I felt at the time that he had the nuts, but while looking at his range and card removal, my decision changed. AK is extremely unlikely to have given that I have the 2 Aces and that 2 of the Kings are on the board. There are only 1 combination of AKs left and NO combinations of AKo left.
So he's repping Specefically ONE hand(unless KQs is in his range, but there isn't many KQ hands left either.) (or quads actually, but that's ridiculously unlikely). I don't think he calls a 4bet of 1/5th his stack with 55 to set mine. JJ is legitimate on the turn, but if JJ is legitimate than 1010/QQ is also legitimately in his hand range.

Against a Range of 1010-KK + AKs, I have 73% equity in the hand. Against JJ-KK + AKs I have 67% equity. I like my play, and I think that this is probably one of the worst beats in a while imo. idk tell me what you think.