So far I've been playing a lot of the deep tables at 25nl. They are wicked soft, and the so called "regs" like to c/r bluff the river all in when I have the nuts. However, I've lots a BUNCH of all ins when i was about 2-4 buy ins deep which is insane. Here's an example of what I mean.
I raise PF in MP w/ AA to 4xbb. SB 3bets to like 16bb, and I 4bet to 48bb's and he calls. We were about 250bb deep or so.
This player was sort of nitty, and I had a 3b of like 5% over 100 hands or so. I felt he was only 3betting premiums and maybe some high broadway hands. I put his PF range that would call a 4bet as 1010-KK AK, AKs.
The flop comes KsK5s. 100bb pot
I bet 40bb on the flop, setting up a turn shove. 10$ into 25$. He calls.
Turn is a Jh We both have 1 Pot sized bet left effective.
I shove and he has AKs.
Did I play the hand wrong? I felt at the time that he had the nuts, but while looking at his range and card removal, my decision changed. AK is extremely unlikely to have given that I have the 2 Aces and that 2 of the Kings are on the board. There are only 1 combination of AKs left and NO combinations of AKo left.
So he's repping Specefically ONE hand(unless KQs is in his range, but there isn't many KQ hands left either.) (or quads actually, but that's ridiculously unlikely). I don't think he calls a 4bet of 1/5th his stack with 55 to set mine. JJ is legitimate on the turn, but if JJ is legitimate than 1010/QQ is also legitimately in his hand range.
Against a Range of 1010-KK + AKs, I have 73% equity in the hand. Against JJ-KK + AKs I have 67% equity. I like my play, and I think that this is probably one of the worst beats in a while imo. idk tell me what you think.
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How is there only one combination of AK left? there are 2 aces and 2 kings in play...therefore leaving 2 of each as possibilities so that means there is two combinations of AK.
ReplyDeleteSo if you think hes calling a 4bet with a premiums (1010+ and AKs/o) I don't mind the flop bet, but when he continues that's a white flag in my head that AK/KK is a possibility and when the turn hits I think shoving against this guy your going to be way behind in most scenarios although check/folding may be hard to do I think it is the most +EV in this spot your beating QQ and 1010 only and if you were in his shoes would you be getting a deep stack in on that kind of board with either of those? I wouldn't be.
Maybe I'm wrong and in 6max this type of thing would be different, but in this scenario I don't think I'd ever be shipping that turn given his stats and the board. If it were a total fish it'd be a completely different situation in my mind.
There are 4 combinations of AK left, 2 suited and 2 unsuited. What are you hoping calls you on the turn?
ReplyDeleteThere's actually 4 combo's left of AK, 3 Offsuit and only 1 Suited -given the actual suits of the Aces i had. On the flop i assume the Bet was OK. The turn got me to make a mistake. Can i check fold here? I don't think so given the dynamic of the table. The table was going pretty crazy. People were constantly 3b/4b/5b and nobody was folding. However this guy i hadnt seen doing any of that crazyness. Even so, with that much money in the pot, and only 1 psb left how can I fold? There's definitely more than just AK in his range. By shoving I'm most likely folding everything I beat after re-analyzing it. I guess check calling is way better than shoving. This is a crazy big pot and a weird hand imo.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I wouldn't say check folding to a shove on the turn is the correct move, but I think it's better than shoving. What can call you there that doesn't have you drawing nearly dead? Only AA and possibly QQ, but I think most players would fold QQ to a shove on the turn.
ReplyDeleteThe only hands he would legitimately flat your 4 bet with are JJ-AA, and AK and we can only give him that range because, as you said, he hasn't done anything out of the ordinary. He seems like a nit. Every hand has us crushed except QQ and AA, since you've decided on that flop that you weren't ever going to fold on the turn, the best move is to check to induce a bet from QQ.
Given his range and that board, a check fold should be a serious consideration.