SN 200k for 2011: The Numbers, the Moe-nays, and the Grind

I've thought about what to do in 2011, 200k Supernova is calling my name. First of all to get my peace of mind together, I'd like to state this:

If I do not play poker in 2011, and work part-time during school/full time during summer, I would only be making about 5-7k a year. My average salary for a summer at Dunks (where i would most-likely work at) would be about 3500$ and part time throughout college I figure around 1500-3k$ would be average. (after taxes)

So I can make around 5-7k$ a year if I quit poker and went back to my old job.

Anyways back to my SN chase.

Here's the numbers:

200,000 VPP's
365 days= 548 VPP/day

At 50nl Short tables- getting .24 vpp/hand (that's what I have at over 70k hand sample)

= 2283 hands/day

At 50nl Short tables- at .38 vpp/hand (that's a rough estimate and I think steve mentioned it was some where around there)

=1442 hands/day

Realistically I can only comfortably play 8-10 tables so far, I'm going to settle with these numbers for now.

8 tabling at 90 hands/hour: 720 hands/hour
50nl: 3.2 hours/day

10 tabling -90h/hr : 900 hands/hour
50nl: 2.53 hours/day

Now, since I am struggling to move up, have not much experience at 100nl, and am a little short on my bankroll for 100nl, I don't think I will be playing as many tables as 50nl. So here's the numbers for my estimate:

5 tabling at 90h/hr: 450 h/hr
100nl= 3.2 hours

7 tabling: 630 h/hr
100nl= 2.3 hours.

The Moe-nay's:

200k SN has a lot of worthy bonuses for grinders at my stage in my poker career.

Firstly, I've set a goal to reach 100k SN by the 6 month mid point of the goal. If I can achieve this then I can receive the full benefits of 200k SN.

I'f I start in January at Platinum star (Grind it out in December), and achieve 100k VPP's after 6 months, I will have 250k FPP's.

Once at Supernova and shooting for 200k VPP's, I'll be getting 3.5 FPP's per VPP.
If I make the last 100k VPP's in the last 6months I will have a total of 600k FPP's.

(the faster I get supernova the more FPP's I will get)

Bonuses:

1000$ stellar rewards (need 90k VPP's to get all of it)
4000$ 250,000 FPP reward
4000$ 250,000 FPP reward
1000$ 50,000 FPP 100k VPP milestone
3400$ 50,000 FPP 200k VPP milestone
____________
Total: $13,400 profit from bonuses at 200k SN.

Even if I play break-even at any of the stakes I play and achieve this, it's almost twice the amount I would make at my typical job.

The numbers for grinding seem very small, however given I've known myself to procrastinate, it's going to be tough.

This is the most realistic reach goal I can set for myself for 2011 and if I do conquer it, I'll set myself up for a great run at SNE in 2012 (the end of ze world.)

My absolute minimum for 2011 is to achieve Supernova 100k. If I don't achieve this, I probably quit poker or am in the ground dead..haha

The cool thing about this whole challenge is the fact that even if I only hit 100k VPP's, I'll still be making my average salary of around 5k a year. Plus, I'll have a much higher FPP/VPP ratio and much better rakeback.

In order to start this challenge and get rolling, I'm going to need a bigger bankroll. In order to play 100nl consistently I want to have at least 3k in my cashier. Until then its going to be about 20% 100nl 80% 50nl/ w.e I decide to play. Once I get a 3k bankroll I do not mind switching roles (no pun intended ;) and making it 80% 100nl / 20% w.e I think this is a really good idea for my peace of mind and situation.

The only hard part about this challenge (besides putting in the grind) will be the distances between each bonus. I'm going to need money and that's a fact. So I'm planning on taking out money each month. I think taking out money once or twice a month is the best way to keep my Bank roll healthy, and still have cash for things. If I have a big $$ month I will try to not take out more than I usually need to suffice for a downswing.

As far as the bonuses go, I'm trying to get my BR to at least 10k by the end of the year any excess funds with that I don't mind taking out and investing/buying big things that I need with. Such as a car =)

Lastly, I would like to rant on about Card runners. I'm going to need a card runners membership. I don't know how I'm going to get it, but I need it. I feel like in order for me to comfortably play 100nl I'm going to need 2-3k in my cashier at all times on stars. This is conflicting because the only realistic way of getting CR is shifting to full tilt and grinding it out. I might ask for a stake, or I might just shift 1k to full tilt and get CR before the new year. This is conflicting however, because I need to achieve Platinum star during December in order to gain full benefits of my FPP's in 2011. Idk just some thoughts. A stake isn't really an option TBH, because it's going to cost me money and the whole point of getting CR is it's free...

Well that's it, really long post, but i feel really good about laying it all out there. Enjoy.